The Department for Transport’s (DfT) second Road Investment Strategy (RIS2) was published at the time of the recent Budget, committing to spend £27.4bn over the next five years on the strategic road network (SRN). The stated main priority is to maintain the existing roads. Only where existing roads are ‘simply not up to the job’ is the Government asking Highways England to develop wider, realigned or, in a few cases, wholly new roads to keep people and goods moving. Yet expenditure on maintenance is expected to be £12bn, whereas capital enhancements are worth £14bn.

Investment

Prioritising investment is based on the 2018 Road Traffic Forecasts, projecting growth on the SRN in the range of 29% to 59% by 2050. This suites the civil engineers of Highways England who see their main purpose as building roads. However, as I have argued previously, the DfT traffic forecasts are very problematic and have generally proved to overestimate outturn traffic levels. Moreover, as I noted in chapter 2 of my recent book, the rate of addition of lane-km to the SRN in recent years has been less than the rate of population growth, despite the high levels of spend.

It is therefore not surprising that average delays on the SRN have worsened during the RIS1 period, growing from 8.9 seconds per vehicle mile to 9.5 seconds per vehicle mile. The DfT’s ambition for performance at the end of RP2 is to be no worse than at the end of RP1. This is a very modest aspiration, and contrasts with the aim of the previous road investment strategy (RIS1) of a free-flow core network with mile a minute speeds increasingly typical.

The new ambition is consistent with the document’s recognition that it is ‘widely accepted that it is not possible to outbuild congestion across the whole of the road network’. Accordingly, investment is to be focused on congestion hotspots, so that average network performance will be at least as good in 2025 as it is in 2020. Yet, as I have pointed out, adding capacity induces more traffic, so tackling congestion hotspots has little impact beyond perhaps shifting congestion to another part of the network.

Optimisation

One odd feature of this and similar publications of Highways England, is the disregard of digital route guidance (Google Maps, Waze and others) that is in very wide use by drivers, because they find it of benefit in optimising routes under congested conditions and in estimating journey times. Roadside variable message signs are an outmoded technology, providing too little information, too late to be of much use.

There is picture of a route guidance app on page 38 of the RIS2 document, but no mention of its relevance. There is a statement that ‘During RP2 Highways England will work with Transport Focus [a consumer body] to investigate future opportunities to make more granular information about delay on the SRN publicly available. We anticipate that this might include reporting on a regional basis, journeys between conurbations, and maps showing delay across the network on a link-by-link basis.’ Highways England seems totally out of touch with the real world.

Non-investments

The RIS2 mentions the outcome of a number of earlier ‘strategic studies’ that now seem unlikely to lead to much. For the M60 Manchester NW Quadrant, it is concluded that the transformational options identified by the study would have significant adverse impacts on local people and communities, and overall would not provide value for money. The proposed Trans-Pennine Tunnel, improving the route between Manchester and Sheffield, seems unlikely to proceed. The Oxford to Cambridge Expressway project has been paused to look at other options.

In contrast, the A303 Stonehenge Tunnel is to go ahead. Yet the National Audit Office found that transport and economic benefits accounted for only 27% of total benefits; the value of cultural heritage, based on a survey asking people what they would be willing to pay to remove the road altogether, was put by the DfT at 73%, and yet this yielded a benefit-cost ratio of only 1.15 , which in the event is likely to be worse because cost overruns. The NAO noted that the DfT has no plan for the corridor as a whole, and that all the other projects on the route offered poor value for money.

This critique of the A303 route can be generalised to the RIS2 as a whole. Although it is entitled a ‘strategy’, in reality it is a construction programme that is deficient in both economic justification overall and indication of spatial impact of economic benefits. What benefits might we expect, and where? We are not provided with more than vague aspirations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Court of Appeal has upheld a challenge to the decision to proceed with a third runway at Heathrow airport on the grounds that the Government’s Airports National Policy Statement (ANPS), which endorsed the runway, was unlawful in failing to take into account the Government’s commitment to the provisions of the Paris Agreement on climate change.

The Government takes the view that Heathrow expansion is a private sector project and so will not appeal against the judgement, leaving open the possibility of later amending the ANPS. This doubtless suites the Prime Minister, who represents a West London constituency under the flightpath and who had earlier been a vocal critic of the airport’s expansion. Abandoning the third runway would also add to the Government’s credibility when hosting the COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow later this year. Meanwhile, the owners of the airport must decide whether an appeal to the Supreme Court would be worthwhile.

The case for increasing the capacity of Heathrow, the UK’s main hub airport, has been based on the needs of business: more direct connections for exporters, facilitating inward investment to the British economy, and boosting London as a world city for doing business. There is no convincing argument for expanding tourism, inbound or outbound, given the need to reduce carbon emissions from aviation.

What is generally overlooked is that most air travel is for leisure purposes. Even at Heathrow, only 25% of passengers are on business trips. So there is ample room for business travel to grow if the demand emerges. Leisure travellers would be displaced to other airports with spare capacity, Stansted and Luton near London, and regional airports beyond. This would happen under the influence of market forces since most business travellers would be willing to pay a premium for the advantages of Heathrow.

Suppose I need to travel to India, to Bangalore for instance. If I’m on a short business trip paid for by my organisation, I’ll fly direct from Heathrow. But if I’m going on holiday, paying out of my own pocket, I’ll shop around for a low-cost flight, expecting to fly with one of the Middle East-based airlines, changing flights at an intermediate hub such as Dubai. I might leave from Heathrow or from Gatwick, Stansted or a regional airport, depending on price and convenience. If demand for business travel to Bangalore grows, leisure travellers who might have flow direct will be have viable alternatives.

Ultimately, growth of demand for air travel will be constrained either by airport capacity or by the need to limit carbon emissions to comply with the Government’s legally binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. One way or another, the cost of air travel is likely to rise, reducing growth in demand.

Hubbub, a UK environmental NGO, has released a report on flying by people in the 20-45 age group, based on a survey sample of two thousand. It found that no less than half the flights by men aged 20-45 in 2019 were for stag parties and a third of flights by women were for hen dos. Hubbub is concerned about the carbon emissions from these flights and the options for reduction by selecting a UK destination. For example, swapping Barcelona for Brighton is the equivalent of going vegan for 2.5 months.

The high proportion of flying for partying is surprising, and reflects the availability of low-cost flights outside the main season for tourist travel. Some increase in the cost of leisure air travel would increase the attractions of domestic destinations, without rather little loss of enjoyment, I anticipate.

Although the private sector operator of Heathrow has a natural commercial interest in expanding its capacity, not all the airport’s users agree. Willie Walsh, chief executive of British Airways’ parent company, has been critical on account of the likely need to cover the cost of construction through higher landing charges. A capacity constraint would allow BA as the dominant airline to raise prices over time, but would also allow the Government to claw back some of the increased profits through a rise in Air Passenger Duty.

In short, we can manage without a new runway at Heathrow. The market will allocate airport capacity to the highest value users, and the UK’s chances of meeting its carbon reduction target will be improved.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The environmental charity Hubbub has released a report on flying by people in the 20-45 age group, based on a survey sample of 2000. It finds that half the flights by men aged 20-45 in 2019 were for stag parties and a third of flights by women were for hen parties. Hubbub is concerned about the carbon emissions from these flights and the options for reduction by selecting a UK destination. For example, swapping Barcelona for Brighton is the equivalent of going vegan for 2.5 months.

An implication of this high proportion of optional leisure flights is to weaken the case for additional runway capacity to accommodate the forecast growth of demand for air travel, in particular the third runway planned at Heathrow. In the absence of increased capacity, growing demand would lead to higher prices in the market for air travel, which would tilt the balance towards UK destinations for leisure trips, to the benefit of the economy of seaside towns and other hospitable destinations. Most air travel is for leisure purposes. There is plenty of airport capacity for business travellers who are willing to pay a premium to command priority over those on leisure trips.

Transport for London has recently published its latest report on Travel in London. At 279 pages, this latest in an annual series is almost certainly the most detailed account of travel behaviour in any city in the world. All credit to TfL.

Table 2.3 shows trip-based mode share. Private transport (very largely car) was responsible for 48% of trips in 2000, declining to 37% in 2015, but thereafter stabilising. Public transport has been stable at 35-36% of trips since 2012, and walking at 24-25% since 2000. Cycling grew from 1.2% in 2000 to reach 2.5% 2018. So the declining trend of car use has ceased in recent years, but it may resume as new rail capacity is opened, particularly Crossrail (the Elizabeth Line). Nevertheless, the target reduction of private transport to 20% by 2041, a feature of the Mayor’s Transport Strategy, looks difficult to achieve.

Section 9.7 discusses the role of licenced taxis and private hire vehicles (PHVs), a topic of much current interest. Taxis (black cabs) have been in slight decline while PHVs have grown substantially in recent years, largely reflecting the entry of Uber into the market. A survey of PHV users in London found that the two main trip purposes were for a night out and to/from airports, but only 28% of PHV trips were for both outward and return legs. App-based PHV users were attracted by specific features: estimate of fare, time for driver to arrive, knowing details of car booked, and estimate of journey time. 30% of PHV users said they had not needed to buy, replace or own a car, which facilitates a shift from individual car ownership.

Assessment

While a long-term target for reduction in car use has merit in that it shapes shorter term decisions, no Mayor is likely to hold office for anything like the time to reach the 2041 target date. A shorter-term target would allow performance to be held to account. And while the recent experience of London is that a steady reduction in the share of trips by car is compatible with the economic, cultural and social success of the city, sustaining this in the longer term would depend on substantial investment in the rail system that provides a fast and reliable alternative to buses, cars and taxis on congested roads. The biggest challenge for TfL and the Mayor is to find means of financing this investment.

The Greater Cambridge Partnership (GCP) arranged a Citizens’ Assembly, comprising some 60 representative members of the community, that met over two weekends to consider transport options that would reduce congestion, improve air quality and provide better public transport. The Assembly heard evidence on these issues from experts, both independent and staff of the GCP. I was present throughout as an expert advisor.  There was extensive discussion by small groups at tables, effectively facilitated by staff of Involve, a charity established to promote public participation in decisions. The GCP was at pains to avoid steering Assembly members to a preferred conclusion, which was achieved, in my judgement.

The context is that the GCP agreed a City Deal with the Coalition Government worth £500m over 15 years, aimed at tackling the transport requirements of a growing city. Cambridge has an historic city centre that constraints both property development and transport provision, so that new businesses, many spun out of university research, are located around the periphery. Travel across the city between homes and employment is impeded by the narrow street network. Cambridge has an effective dedicated north-south busway along a previous rail route, and further such routes are planned. But the problem of the congested centre remains.

The second weekend of the Assembly focused on practical measures, leading to voting on preferred options, the results of which have been published. There was strong support for closing roads to cars, to allow faster and more reliable buses and to encourage walking and cycling, as well as to reduce air pollution. There was also good support for road user charging, to raise funds to invest in public transport and active travel. There was less support for measures to limit or charge for parking, and relatively little preference for no interventions.

The Assembly also voted on a wide range of supporting measures. The most popular was to put in place a franchised bus service under the Mayor, like that operated in London, in place of the present privately operated buses.

Assessment

The conclusions of the Assembly were a sensible response to the travel problems experienced in Cambridge and the surrounding area – a policy package comprising revenue generated from motorists to support investment in public transport and active travel, plus more road space for these purposes. The GCP is likley to find it difficult to reject this outcome, not least because the funding from the Government comes in tranches that have to be justified by showing progress towards tackling the problems for which the funding was promised.

More generally, this experience indicates that a Citizens’ Assembly may be a more effective means of carrying forward policy in problematic areas, particularly where conventional consultation exercises are likely to stimulate more negative responses from those who believe they would be adversely affected while those who may benefit tend to stay silent.

Breaks in trend

The title of my new book, ‘Driving Change: Travel in the Twenty-First Century’, reflects both the observation that there have been important changes in travel behaviour as we moved from the last century to the present, as well as the possibility that new transport technologies will make a difference to how we travel.

We have nearly half a century of time series data from the National Travel Survey that shows little change in both average travel time (close to an hour a day) and trip rate (about 1000 a year). In contrast, the average distance travelled displays two distinct phases: growth from 4500 miles per person per year in the early 1970s to about 7000 miles by 2000, after which growth ceased. Most travel is by car, so, as expected, car use per capita ceased to grow at the turn of the century, which is also the case for other developed countries. Such cessation of growth of car use has previously been called ‘peak car’, but a better term would be ‘plateau car’ since there is little evidence of a decline in per capita distance travelled.

Growth in average distance travelled was a consequence of higher speeds made possible by the growth of car ownership, supported by road construction. The proximate cause of cessation of growth in car use was the cessation of growth of household car ownership, which increased from 14% in 1951 to 75% by 2000, after which growth ended. A number of factors contributed to the break in the growth trend of car ownership. Population growth in cities, where alternatives to the car are viable, reflected both a shift in the economy from manufacturing to services that tend to be located in city centres, as well as the attractions of city living for young adults, whether studying or in employment.

In successful cities, exemplified by London, car use has been constrained by the capacity of the road network while the travel needs of a growing population have been accommodated by investment in rail. Increasing population density shrinks catchment areas for retail businesses and public services, so making active travel and public transport acceptable alternatives to the car. Car use in London peaked at around 1990 when 50% of all trips were by car, subsequently falling to 36% at present, with the Mayor’s ambition to reduce to 20% by 2041. Increasing population density gives rise to agglomeration benefits – economic, cultural and social – such that declining car use is associated with increasing prosperity. Other cities have a choice: whether to accommodate the car on account of its attractions as a means of mobility; or whether to push back the car to encourage interactions between people.

While car use per capita ceased to grow at the turn of the century, rail passenger numbers went in the opposite direction, doubling over a 20 year period, a consequence of the growth of employment in business services in city centres, congestion on the roads, and investment in the railway by both the private sector train operators and the public sector Network Rail.

The breaks in trend in both road and rail use pose problems for modellers and forecasters. Such breaks reflect changes in travel behaviour, hence historic relationships (elasticities) cannot be assumed to apply. Moreover, the invariance in average travel time observed in the National Travel Survey findings indicates that the benefits of transport investments are not time savings as conventionally assumed. Rather, people take advantage of higher speeds to travel further, to have more choice of destinations, services and opportunities. In short, the benefits of investment are improved access, which is generally subject to diminishing returns. So the conventional four-stage transport model that generates time savings as the output in ‘do something’ cases does not validly represent the changes in travel behaviour that result from an investment.

A feature of travel in the twenty-first century is the impact of new technologies. What impact may we expect on travel by old-established modes of the rapidly developing, often disruptive, digital technologies? Four new technologies are available, or becoming so. Electric propulsion eliminates tailpipe emissions, good for urban air quality and mitigating climate change. Digital navigation can improve the efficiency of our travel and reduce uncertainty and anxiety. Digital platforms allow more efficient matching of supply and demand, exemplifies by ride-hailing taxis such as Uber. And autonomous vehicles may reduce costs for conveyances that otherwise would have a human at the wheel, but may add to congestion as unoccupied private cars make their way to where they are next needed.

The past transport innovations – railway in the nineteenth century, motorcar in the twentieth, modern bicycle in its heyday, motorised two-wheelers in low income countries today – all these allowed a step change in speed and hence in access. In contrast, the new technologies seem unlikely to permit faster travel. Accordingly, they will not be transformational for users, but rather offer incremental improvements to the quality of journeys.

We are therefore in a period of relative stability in respect of per capita travel, which innovative technologies seem unlikely to disturb.

This blog also appeared on the PTRC website.

 

An independent Commission on Travel Demand, funded by UK Research Councils, recently issued its report, based on evidence and expert advice. There is no single message, other than that there are more uncertain factors influencing travel demand than conventionally supposed. However, the report make ten sensible recommendations for better processes.

I was disappointed that the report did not consider two matters on which I had submitted evidence. One is that demand for any kind of product or service may saturate, that is, cease to grow once all needs are met. For instance, ownership of many household goods, such as washing machines, exceeds 90%, so that demand no longer reflects growing tes, but only replacement plus population growth. There is evidence consistent with saturation of demand for daily travel for many purposes. For instance, 80% of the urban population of Britain have a choice of three or more large supermarkets within 15 drive minutes of home, and 60% have a choice of four or more. If you have a choice of 3-4 supermarkets within 15 minutes drive, you may not be inclined to drive further to have a choice of a fourth or fifth, in which case your demand for travel to supermarkets is said to have saturated.

Second, given that average travel time has not changed for at least the last 45 years, as measured in the National Travel Survey, increased travel demand (distance per capita) must require faster travel. This is now hard to achieve, given high levels of car ownership and the limited scope for this to grow, plus a mature road network where congestion proves difficult to mitigate. We have High Speed Rail on the way, but rail is a minority of all trips, so HSR would be a minority of a minority, with little impact on average speed.

The travel time constraint, coupled with the speed constraint, means that travel demand per capita is unlikely to grow significantly in the future. Total travel demand will be driven by population growth, of course, although the pattern of demand will depend on where the additional inhabitants are housed: greenfield means more cars, urban at higher density implies investment in public transport.

Professor Peter Jones, my UCL colleague, has been leading an EU funded project concerned with urban mobility, past and future, in five Western European cities – Berlin, Copenhagen, London, Paris and Vienna. The report is now available, as is a short speech by Peter.

A trajectory is identified in which cities start by attempting to accommodate the car, see the difficulties in high density locations and so reallocate road space to walking, cycling and public transport, and subsequently move on to focus on place – the role of streets as public realm for non-mobility activities. The figure above shows how car use peaked and then declined in consequence.

Recognition of place as an important quality of urban streets presents a problem for conventional transport investment appraisal, which only recognises the economic benefits of increased mobility. The report advocates ‘vision and validate’ as an approach, as opposed to the traditional ‘predict and provide’, using cost-effectiveness analysis to justify investment to attain the desired balance between mobility and place.

This report is a valuable synthesis of a considerable amount of data and analysis highly relevant to how we think about the future of cities.

 

I have long been skeptical about the case for a third runway at Heathrow. The argument in favour concerns the growth of demand for business travel, yet most passengers at Heathrow are on leisure trips, so there is plenty of scope for increasing business travel by displacing leisure travel to other airports in the London area with spare capacity. In a blog posted in 2015 I suggested that Emirates Airline might fly from Stansted to its Dubai hub if demand for flights from Heathrow could not be accommodated.

I was therefore gratified to read in the Financial Times that Emirates is indeed launching next month a daily service from Stansted to Dubai. Other airlines are offering services from Stansted to New York: Primera Air and Wow Air. Stansted hosted 190,000 flights in 2017 but could accomodate 274,000 on its single runway.