The Observer newspaper carries an article on cycling in Vienna, a city which is the fastest growing in the German-speaking world. Like other historic cities, the road network cannot cope with rising traffic levels, so the authorities aim to double cycling’s share of trips by 2015. Cycling is becoming fashionable amongst younger people, and there is a growing market for old and notable bikes, which are becoming collectable.
City and suburb
An interesting article in the Financial Times reports the revival of urban centres in the USA, with the suburbs becoming new homes for the poor. The revival of downtown Detroit is reported in detail, with young graduates postponing their move to the suburbs and starting families. The city is a less lonely place for singles. Density can be reassuring: ‘In suburbia no one can hear your scream.’ Of Tampa, one of the most suburban multi-lane cities in the US: ‘No encounters ever happen by accident in Tampa. Or if they do, they’re traumatic.’
City living without a car is feasible, but not suburban living. This can be costly for people on low incomes where it can cost as much to fill petrol tanks as to pay rent. Personal financial crisis resulting in loss of the car can be catastrophic. The suburbs were created to house the new middle-class of the 20th century, but the economy they were built around is vanishing,it is argued, with the good jobs increasingly in the cities.
These city and suburban trends are contributing to the cessation of per capita growth of car travel in the US and elsewhere.
New report on cycling
The All Party Parliamentary Cycling Group recently reported the findings of an inquiry into the prospects for cycling in Britain. The Group commissioned a report from Professor Phil Goodwin, well worth reading, whose introduction starts:
“I, like most professional transport planners, providers and researchers of my generation, have grown up thinking that cycling, though worthy, is of small significance compared with the great questions of cars, traffic and public transport, or the universal significance of walking. This applies, I think, equally to those who saw the future as building roads for an unending growth in car use, and those who favoured traffic restraint and better public transport– and even those who cycled regularly themselves. We were wrong. The evidence demonstrates quite clearly that, in the words of one witness to the Inquiry …… cycling is the mode of transport ‘on the cusp of greatness’.”
An impressive endorsement of cycling from a very experienced and thoughtful analyst.
Report on declining US car use
A new report from the Public Interest Research Group (PIRG) Education Fund and the Frontier Group argues that the driving boom is over. Total vehicle-miles travelled has plateaued while vehicle-miles per capita is declining. An important contributing factor is that the ‘Millennial generation” – born between 1983 and 2000 – are driving less than previous generations of young Americans.
These are not entirely new findings, but they do confirm an emerging trend that is gaining recognition in most developed economies.
NAO on HS2
The National Audit Office, Parliament’s spending watchdog as it’s often called, issued a critical report on plans for High Speed 2, the proposed high speed rail line north out of London.
The NAO is concerned about the lack of clarity around the Department for Transport’s objectives. The strategic case for the network should be better developed at this stage of the programme. It is unclear how HS2 will transform regional economies by delivering jobs and growth. The Department is still trying against a challenging timetable to strengthen its evidence and analysis, which at present provide a weak foundation for securing and demonstrating success in the programme in future.
My view is that the best argument for HS2 is to meet the need of London residents who don’t run cars but who need to travel beyond the capital. London’s population is growing rapidly. Car use is limited by the capacity of the road network. Car trips, as a share of all journey, are in steady decline, from 50% in 1990 to 38% currently. The benefits of HS2 for cities in the Midlands and the North are unclear, although many people are optimistic. We shall have to wait and see to what extent these materialise.
Crossrail 2
Crossrail is the new east-west rail route currently being tunneled under central London. Transport for London, the executive body responsible to the Mayor, has initiated a consultation on what is now known as Crossrail 2, a route from the southwest to the northeast suburbs. The Transport Committee of the London Assembly held a meeting today to discuss this proposal at which I was an invited expert. There was general agreement that this new route should go ahead, given the projections for the growth of London’s population – from 8.2m in 2011 to 10m in the late 2030s.
Car use in London has held steady at about 10m trips a day, constrained by road capacity which has not been enlarged. Because the population has been growing, this volume of car journeys represents a declining share of total trips, down to 38% at present from a peak of 50% in 1990. On current population projections, this share will fall to about 30% before 2040 – a huge mode shift away from the car.
A successful city has two characteristics: its population is growing and it moves people increasingly by rail for work journeys. People will get out of their cars onto rail which is speedy and reliable; they are much more reluctant to prefer slower, less reliable buses.
Robot chauffeurs
The Economist magazine has a report on the future of the car containing useful updates on powertrain development, and also a section on driverless cars, a recent enthusiasm of the Economists writers in the light of technology demonstrations by Google and a number of car manufacturers.
Driverless cars could prolong driving by older people, and reduce accidents, insurance and medical costs, and congestion. But decades of road safety legislation would have to be over-turned before cars could roam the streets without a qualified and sober driver at the controls. VW’s research chief is skeptical, not expecting a fully automated car within twenty years.
I share this view. The benefits of robot chauffeurs do not seem sufficiently great to overcome the barriers to introduction.
Chinese back to bikes
The Financial Times reports a revival of cycling in the Chinese city of Hangzhou, a city of 11m people famous for its traffic jams, but also now the world’s largest public bike rental scheme, used by as many as 400,000 people a day. The city aims for 50-60 per cent of people walking or riding electric and regular bikes.
This is a very sensible policy, given the limited capacity for car traffic in growing densely populated metropolises.
Transport in London
Professor David Begg, a well known expert, has authored a very comprehensive and interesting analysis of the performance of London’s transport system. He concludes that elements of London’s transport system can robustly be described as ‘world class’: the performance of the transport system during the 2012 Olympics; the extensive and often undervalued bus network; record high performance of the tube and the good progress made on upgrading a 150 year old asset; the transformation of an antiquated and declining railway into the impressive London Overground network; customer information, marketing and ticketing which have improved out of all recognition; the management of traffic flows on the road network; congestion charging; and the Low Emission Zone.
This analysis confirms my own view that London has a steadily improving transport system which has benefited from governance arrangements headed by a high profile Mayor who is supported by Transport for London, an executive with a strong grip on both strategy and performance.
Nano
I was surprised at how few Nanos I saw on both city and rural roads on a recent trip to India. The Tata Nano was built to sell at about US$2000, as the cheapest car in the world, aimed at the ‘bottom of the pyramid’ market. It is a simple yet good looking small car, which was expected to sell well, yet hasn’t. The explanation I heard is that Indians are very conscious of status, so that a car that is advertised as cheap is not attractive. A bit of a marketing blunder in the short term. In the long run, a low cost vehicle should provide a good basis for market expansion.
